Is it possible to accurately predict earthquakes?

Earthquakes are often referred to as the rarest of natural disasters, usually occurring over long periods of time. But this idea is partially true. Every day there are hundreds of earthquakes in the world, which are so weak that we do not feel them. Earthquakes below magnitude 3/4 on the Richter scale are mostly undetectable.

But where earthquakes differ from other disasters is that there is no way to detect them. Even this advanced science of the 21st century cannot accurately predict the arrival of an earthquake, which is why the death toll from the powerful Turkey-Syria earthquake has exceeded 40,000, and counting. But why such a severe disaster as an earthquake can not be determined?

Origin of earthquakes

When the earth vibrates for some reason, it is called an earthquake. As simple as the style is, the execution is not. Beneath the Earth's surface are large layers of solid rock, separated by cracks, and known as tectonic plates.

Attempts to predict earthquakes

Research suggests that there are some consistent characteristics of earthquakes, which may be analyzed to provide early warning of earthquakes. For example, all earthquakes, large and small, follow a pattern. The vibration first increases, then rises to a maximum and then gradually decreases. But the increase in vibration is not like a simple calculation of numbers, but increases in multiples. That is why each unit on the Richter scale is 10 times stronger than the next unit. In other words, a magnitude 1 earthquake on the Richter scale is 10 times stronger than a magnitude 2 earthquake.

Groundwater levels also provide important information for some earthquakes. Excessive pressure underground creates tiny cracks (micro fissures) in the rock, which change the water permeability of the rock. As a result, there is a change in the hydrochemistry there, from which it is possible to get the message of the arrival of the earthquake.

In some cases, radon levels in some minerals vary before an earthquake. As this variation does not follow a definite pattern, it has not yet been possible to establish any connection with earthquakes. It is believed that radon gas escapes to the surface through tiny cracks in tectonic rocks, which can be used to detect earthquakes. But most scientists are skeptical, because such radon gas can also be produced by rock erosion, landslides or chemical reactions in groundwater.

Another way to detect earthquakes is electromagnetic energy. Some rocks radiate electromagnetic energy before breaking under great pressure. By measuring this energy, it is possible to get a glimpse of the energy stored in the tectonic plates in the Earth's interior. The most important here is 'Foreshock' or small tremors before big earthquakes, which can be detected to predict upcoming strong earthquakes.

Outside of scientific practice, it has been common since ancient times to predict earthquakes by watching the behavior of animals. Animals are said to behave abnormally before a major earthquake; There are several such proofs. Although research is underway on this matter, it is also not a very reliable approach.

It is known that there will be an earthquake, it is not known when it will happen

Although these methods are unreliable, one thing that has long been established is that large earthquakes occur at regular intervals along active fault lines. If we extrapolate to the recent earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, the East Anatolian Fault Line has had only three magnitude 6 or greater earthquakes since 1970. At the meeting point of three tectonic plates - Anatolia, Arabia and Africa - a powerful earthquake was due. But why this inevitable earthquake could not be predicted?

“When we run earthquake simulation tests in the laboratory, we see many types of cracks and seismic moderators. But these things are very uncertain in nature, which is why we don't see them before the big earthquakes happen," said Chris Maroon, professor of geosciences at Penn State University, USA, in a recent interview with the BBC.

Maroon blames excessive noise pollution as the reason for not being able to pick up the seismic signal of the initial small tremor before the big earthquake. There are numerous tectonic faults all over the world that are actually constantly moving and generating tremendous noise and energy radiation into the Earth's interior. However, these seismic signals are difficult to detect due to underground minerals, gases and molten larvae in the Earth's core. Besides, there is man-made noise pollution.

Basically, successful prediction of an earthquake requires three pieces of information – where, when and how big. Continuous research has been going on since the last century, yet nothing has been discovered by which all three can be accurately stated.

So far, scientists' greatest success in earthquake prediction is the 'Hazard Map'. Scientists have been able to give a glimpse of the possibility of an earthquake in a certain area during a certain period (the magnitude is not determined). This can lead to early warning in those areas, such as identifying weak infrastructure. But that does not eliminate the risk of mass casualties.

Can artificial intelligence predict?

The latest addition to the effort to accurately predict earthquakes is Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI will be able to catch the necessary signals among numerous signals through a pattern. And research is also going on to train AI. In this case, small pieces of granite are artificially stressed in the laboratory, and at one point they create friction like tectonic plates that cause small vibrations. It is called 'Labquack'.

The important component here is the elastic waves that radiate through tectonic fractures, and can be detected from the surface. By detecting these waves, it is possible to predict when the elasticity of the fault line will be completely destroyed by detecting the gradual collapse of tectonic cracks and the small tremors that precede earthquakes.

However, this can be done in the laboratory but cannot be done practically now. Also, moving people from their homes over a wide area is expensive and troublesome if not 100% reliable. However, scientists are not giving up. The addition of artificial intelligence can quickly bring solutions, opening up new horizons in dealing with life-threatening disasters like earthquakes.